Labour swept to power in July 2024 with what looked, on paper, like a historic landslide. Keir Starmer won a commanding majority of over 170 seats, enough to govern without compromise. But dig beneath the headline and it becomes clear this was not a win born of enthusiasm.
Turnout slumped to just 52% of eligible voters, the lowest since universal suffrage. Labour’s share of the vote, at 33.7%, was actually lower than Jeremy Corbyn’s in 2019. Yet under the first-past-the-post system, that translated into 411 seats—a huge majority, but one that masks a lack of genuine support.
In fact, Labour won in most constituencies with less than half the vote, meaning that around 85% of seats were decided by a minority of voters.
It was a “loveless landslide”. Millions stayed home, and many who did turn out voted more to punish the Conservatives than to endorse Labour. That’s why Starmer’s government feels vulnerable. With expectations high and patience already thin, it hasn’t taken long for disillusion to set in.
The Most Unpopular Prime Minister in History
Barely months into the job, Starmer has plummeted in the polls. According to recent surveys, he is already the most unpopular Prime Minister in British political history. The honeymoon period that usually follows an election never arrived. Instead, Labour has found itself firefighting from day one.
This fragility explains why betting markets are already looking ahead to who could replace him. Bookmakers rarely move so quickly after a landslide, but the odds on the Next Prime Minister now suggest his time in Number 10 may be cut short.
Odds on the Next UK Prime Minister After Keir Starmer
Nigel Farage and Reform UK are the big story of the year. After decades on the sidelines, Farage finally led his party to Westminster seats, breaking the stranglehold of the two-party system. That breakthrough has changed the political landscape, and the bookies have slashed his odds to take over from Starmer as the Next PM.
| Candidate | Odds |
|---|---|
| Nigel Farage | 5/2 |
| Angela Rayner | 7/1 |
| Wes Streeting | 9/1 |
| Kemi Badenoch | 12/1 |
| Yvette Cooper | 12/1 |
| Robert Jenrick | 12/1 |
| Boris Johnson | 16/1 |
| Rupert Lowe | 20/1 |
| Andy Burnham | 25/1 |
| James Cleverly | 25/1 |
| Rachel Reeves | 33/1 |
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Farage’s odds reflect his sudden credibility. Once written off as a protest politician, his breakthrough at the ballot box has given him a platform inside Parliament. Combined with Starmer’s plummeting approval and the Conservatives’ collapse, it makes him the standout figure for the future.
The Conservatives in Meltdown
For the Tories, the election was nothing short of catastrophic. Whole swathes of their traditional strongholds fell, and their attempts to regroup have so far been mired in infighting.
Bookmakers give them little chance of a majority any time soon. Instead, the spotlight is on Reform UK and whether they can build on their breakthrough and replace the Conservatives as the main force of opposition.
A Fragile Mandate
Starmer may hold one of the largest parliamentary majorities in modern times, but his position is anything but secure. The combination of a “loveless landslide” and record-low turnout means his government lacks deep public backing.
History shows that big majorities can crumble if the public mood shifts. Just ask Theresa May, who called a snap election in 2017 expecting a landslide only to lose her majority altogether. Starmer’s Labour faces the same risk: collapse in support before it has even settled into government.
Where to Bet on UK Politics
If you’re looking to back your predictions, Betfred’s politics page has one of the most comprehensive ranges of markets in the UK. Alongside “Next Prime Minister”, you can bet on:
- Next UK General Election
- Next UK Prime Minister
- Next Labour Leader
- Next Conservative Leader
- Next Reform UK Leader
- Keir Starmer Specials
- Kemi Badenoch Specials
- Nigel Farage Specials
With British politics shifting by the week, these markets are constantly moving — making Betfred a popular stop for punters who want to keep an eye on every twist and turn. You can check their full list of political betting markets here.
Final Thoughts
The story of the last election wasn’t Labour’s triumph, but the public’s disengagement. A “loveless landslide” delivered Starmer the keys to Downing Street, but not the affection or loyalty of the voters. That fragility explains why the odds on the Next PM have shifted so dramatically, with Nigel Farage now the bookmakers’ favourite to take over.
For punters, the message is clear: nothing is guaranteed, and the odds on the Next Prime Minister could keep moving long before the public gets another say.
