One of the biggest mistakes punters make is backing football teams to win away from home. Statistically, it’s proven that teams struggle to overturn home-field advantage, even massive clubs like Bayern, Barca and Burnley can struggle to win on the road. (I’m just kidding, Bayern isn’t a big club).
Over 25 seasons of the Premier League, away teams were victorious in just 26.32% of games. The home side won 46.2% of matches, and the draw accounted for 27.52% of results. As you can see from those stats, a team on the road is significantly less likely to win!
If we look at the 2018/19 Bundesliga results, we can see a similar pattern emerge. Schalke 04 was the only team in the German league not to record a statistical home-field advantage in the 2018/19 season. Dortmund enjoyed the most impressive home advantage, gaining 2.59 points per game on average, followed by Bayern Munich with 2.47 points per home game.
In Serie A the picture was almost identical, in 2018/19 the only club to record a negative home advantage was Frosinone. As you’d expect, Juve recorded the best home advantage. Even seventh-placed Torino was able to post an average of 2 points per home game played.
SMARTER BETS ON AWAY TEAMS
Now, I’m not saying that away teams can’t win. The top teams will often win away. What I am saying is don’t bank on it. Liverpool or Man City might be on a great run of form. However, that doesn’t mean they’ll turn up at Bramall Lane and rollover Sheffield United.
In the past, I’ve lost big backing teams to win away. I then started changing my bets; instead of a straight win, I switched to the ‘Draw No Bet’ option. It works like this – If your selection is successful, you win. If the game ends in a draw, your stake is returned, meaning you neither win nor lose.
The last option is to use the Betfair Exchange, instead of backing away teams, why not lay? That means you’re betting against them winning the game. If the home team wins, you’ve won! If the game ends in a draw, you’ll still win!
So there you have it. An easy guide on how to increase the win rate of your football bets. Never dismiss home ground advantage. The cheering crowds and familiarity, plus the lack of travel time can all factor into a good performance from a weaker side.