One of the biggest mistakes punters make is backing football teams to win away from home. Statistically, it’s proven that teams struggle to overturn home-field advantage, even massive clubs like Bayern, Barca and Burnley can struggle to win on the road. (I’m just kidding, Bayern isn’t a big club).
THE STATS
Over 25 seasons of the Premier League, away teams were victorious in just 26.32% of games. The home side won 46.2% of matches, and the draw accounted for 27.52% of results. As you can see from those stats, a team on the road is significantly less likely to win!
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If we look at the 2018/19 Bundesliga results, we can see a similar pattern emerge. Schalke 04 was the only team in the German league not to record a statistical home-field advantage in the 2018/19 season. Dortmund enjoyed the most impressive home advantage, gaining 2.59 points per game on average, followed by Bayern Munich with 2.47 points per home game.
In Serie A, the picture was almost identical in 2018/19 Frosinone was the only club with a negative home advantage, according to records. As you’d expect, Juve recorded the best home advantage. Even seventh-placed Torino could post an average of 2 points per home game played.
PREMIER LEAGUE SEASON 2022-23 AWAY TEAM STATS
The latest Premier League season gives us some interesting insights into teams’ performance in the 2022-23 season, specifically when they were playing away from home. Here are some noteworthy points:
- Top Performers: Arsenal and Manchester City were the top performers in away matches, with win percentages of 63% and 58%, respectively. This suggests that these teams were highly effective at securing victories even in challenging away environments.
- Mid-Table Consistency: Brighton, Manchester United, and Newcastle all had identical away-win ratios of 42%, indicating a level of consistency in their performances away from home.
- Struggling Giants: It’s interesting to note that traditionally strong teams like Liverpool, Tottenham, and Chelsea had lower away win ratios (32% and 26%, respectively). This could suggest they faced challenges when playing away from their home grounds during this season.
- Underdogs: Teams like Bournemouth and Brentford, despite being less prominent in the league, managed to secure a respectable away-win ratio of 26%.
- Bottom of the Table: Nottingham Forest had the lowest away win ratio at 5%, indicating they struggled significantly during away matches this season.
These statistics highlight the importance of away game performance in the overall success of a team in the league. Teams that can consistently secure points away from home often have a significant advantage in the race for the title or for securing a high league position. Conversely, teams that struggle in away matches can find themselves in difficult positions, even if their home form is strong.
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LA LIGA SEASON 2022-23 AWAY TEAM STATS
The 2022-23 stats for La Liga are pretty interesting! Here are some important takeaways:
- Top Performers: The statistics reveal that Barcelona dominated away games with an impressive 68% win rate, closely followed by Real Madrid with 58%.
- Strong Mid-Table Performances: Atletico Madrid and Real Sociedad both had strong away-win ratios of 53%, indicating a level of consistency in their performances away from home.
- Underperforming Traditional Powerhouse: Sevilla, traditionally one of the stronger teams in La Liga, had a lower away win ratio of 32%. This could suggest they faced challenges when playing away from their home grounds during this season.
- Bottom of the Table: Almeria’s away win ratio this season was an abysmal 5%, indicating that they encountered considerable challenges in their away matches..
- Balanced Performance: It’s interesting to note that many teams, such as Celta, Espanol, Mallorca, Osasuna, and Vallecano, all had identical away win ratios of 21%. This suggests a level of balance in the middle of the table.
SERIE A SEASON 2022-23 AWAY TEAM STATS
Here are the stats for away teams from the Serie A 2022-23 season
- Top Performers: Napoli led the pack with an impressive away win ratio of 74%, followed by Lazio at 58%. This suggests that these teams were highly effective at securing victories even in challenging away environments.
- Strong Mid-Table Performances: Atalanta, Inter, Juventus, and Torino all had strong away win ratios of 47%, indicating a level of consistency in their performances away from home.
- Underperforming Traditional Powerhouse: Milan, traditionally one of the stronger teams in Serie A, had a lower away win ratio of 37%.
- Bottom of the Table: Cremonese had the lowest away win ratio at 5%, indicating they struggled significantly in away matches during this season.
- Balanced Performance: It’s interesting to note that many teams, such as Bologna, Monza, and Roma, all had identical away win ratios of 37%. This suggests a level of balance in the middle of the table.
BUNDESLIGA SEASON 2022-23 AWAY TEAM STATS
Let’s dive into some fascinating stats from the 2022-23 Bundesliga season, focusing on the performance of teams when they were playing away from their home grounds.
Bayern Munich once again demonstrated why they’re a force to be reckoned with, leading the pack with an impressive away-win ratio of 59%. The Bavarian giants secured victory in 10 out of their 17 away matches. Their dominance on the road was a key factor in their success this season.
Borussia Dortmund, another traditional powerhouse, followed with a commendable away win ratio of 47%. They secured 8 victories in their 17 away matches, showing their resilience and adaptability in different stadiums.
In the middle of the table, we saw some interesting performances. Freiburg, RB Leipzig, Union Berlin, and Wolfsburg all had identical away win ratios of 41%, indicating a level of consistency in their performances away from home. These teams demonstrated their ability to hold their own, even when playing in the challenging environments of their opponents’ home grounds.
However, it wasn’t all sunshine and roses for every team. Borussia Mönchengladbach struggled significantly in away matches during this season, with the lowest away win ratio at a mere 6%. This suggests they faced significant challenges when playing away from their home grounds, something they’ll no doubt be looking to improve in the next season.
SMARTER BETS ON AWAY TEAMS
Now, I’m not saying that away teams can’t win. The top teams will often win away. What I am saying is don’t bank on it. Liverpool or Man City might be on a great run of form. However, that doesn’t mean they’ll turn up at Bramall Lane and roll over Sheffield United.
In the past, I’ve lost big backing teams to win away. I then started changing my bets; instead of a straight win, I switched to the ‘Draw No Bet’ option. It works like this – If your selection is successful, you win. If the game ends in a draw, your stake is returned, meaning you neither win nor lose.
Another option is picking teams you think have a strong chance of winning away – and then betting on them to DRAW! Combine two or three of these into an ACCA for a bet with low costs and big odds.
The last option is to use the Betfair Exchange; instead of backing away teams, why not lay? That means you’re betting against them winning the game. If the home team wins, you’ve won! If the game ends in a draw, you’ll still win!
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So there you have it. An easy guide on increasing the win rate of your football bets. Never dismiss home-ground advantage. The cheering crowds and familiarity, plus the lack of travel time, can all factor into a good performance from a weaker side.
You can hedge your bets when a team is notorious for struggling away from home with the following wagers.
1. Double Chance Bet: This is one of the most popular types of bets for those looking to play it safe. In a Double Chance bet, you can bet on two out of the three possible outcomes: home team win or draw, away team win or draw, or either team to win. If you’re unsure about a team’s away performance, betting on a home team win or draw could be a smart move.
2. Draw No Bet: This is another great option for mitigating risk. In a Draw No Bet, you back a team to win, and if the match ends in a draw, your stake is returned. This way, you can back the home team to win, and if the match ends in a draw, you won’t lose your money.
3. Over/Under Goals: If a team has a poor away record, it might be worth looking at Over/Under Goals markets. If you expect a low-scoring game, you could bet on Under 2.5 Goals. This bet wins if there are two or fewer goals in the match, regardless of who scores them.
4. Both Teams to Score (BTTS): This is another market that doesn’t rely on the match result. If the away team often struggles to score, betting on ‘No’ in the BTTS market could be a good option.
5. Asian Handicap: This type of bet allows you to give one team a virtual advantage or disadvantage. For example, if you expect the home team to win comfortably against a poor away side, you could bet on the home team with a -1.5 handicap. This means they need to win by two or more goals for your bet to win.
Remember, betting should always be done responsibly. While these strategies can help mitigate risk, there’s always an element of unpredictability in football. That’s part of what makes the beautiful game so exciting!
