While there may not be an immediate General Election looming, there is almost certainly going to be one in 2024. So what are the odds on the next Prime Minister?

Let’s take a look at who’s in the running and the odds of them entering number ten.

The next general election must occur no later than January 2025 but could potentially be held earlier.

However, in the United Kingdom, you don’t necessarily need a general election to have a change of Prime Minister!

The reality is that since Boris Johnson was elected in the 2019 General Election, we’ve had two more Prime Ministers without a ballot box in sight.

First, we had Liz Truss, and now currently Rishi Sunak. So when it comes to betting on the next Prime Minister, it would be wise to look at both the potential election winners and those who could take over without an election.

General Election Betting

Bookmakers have a number of different options for those looking to take a political punt.

In the UK, there are three main bets:

  • Who will be the next Prime Minister
  • Which party will win the most seats
  • Which party will form the Government

Odds On The Next Prime Minister – After Rishi Sunak

Despite his best attempts to cling to power, Rishi Sunak doesn’t seem to be able to go a week without a crisis of some sort.

Sure, some of it is manufactured to make the Labour Party look good, but most of it is down to Sunak himself.

So it really is only a matter of time before he, too, leaves 10 Downing Street, unlikely to ever return.

So who could take his place? Here are the current frontrunners for odds on the next Prime Minister, as of February 28th 2024…

Politician Odds
Keir Starmer 1/6
David Cameron 16/1
Kemi Badenoch 16/1
James Cleverly 20/1
Suella Braverman 25/1
Penny Mordaunt 33/1
Nigel Farage 50/1
Jeremy Hunt 50/1
Boris Johnson 50/1
Wes Streeting 66/1
Oliver Dowden 100/1
Rachel Reeves 66/1
Angela Rayner 66/1

Next UK General Election – Most Seats

This bet is the favourite of political pundits, as it considers both the potential for a coalition government and hung parliaments.

Currently, the odds favour Labour, with Keir Starmers’ party on track to win the most seats according to the latest opinion polls.

Labour: 1/10

Conservatives: 13/2

Reform UK: 40/1

Lib Dems: 250/1

Form Government/Overall Majority:

As mentioned earlier, the odds favour Labour forming the next government. This could be as either a single-party government or with coalition partners.

This is the major downside to this bet, as the outcome of a hung parliament is difficult to predict.

Labour Majority: 1/5

No Overall Majority: 5/1

Conservative Majority: 14/1

Reform UK: 250/1

Lib Dems Majority: 750/1

All the big bookmakers like Betway and Betfred, have full odds of the election outcome.

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Who Will Be The Next Prime Minister?

In the past five years, we’ve had some of the strangest election results in recent memory, so predicting the outcome of the next election is a risky proposition.

Who would’ve guessed that a Prime Minister could be forced to step down due to a cake? Although, I think Marie-Antoinette still sets the standard for cake-based political blunders.

Nevertheless, Boris Johnsons’ birthday cake did prove the old adage: You can’t have your cake and eat it (too).

But there’s no doubt that the Labour Party is the favourite to form a government at the next election, and it seems clear that Keir Starmer will be the next Prime Minister if they do.

Recently by-election results suggest it’s his job to lose at this stage.

That said, that would have to come from a general election. If like Johnson and Truss after him, Rishi Sunak loses the party faithful he could be packing his bags before he ever gets to the ballot box.

In that case, David Cameron and Kemi Badenoch look the most likely candidates to pick up the Number 10 mantle.

In fact, Badenoch is 16/1 to be the next Prime Minister, she’s also 2/1 to be the next Conservative Party leader!

Greatest Political Upsets

The United Kingdom has had its fair share of political upsets since becoming a unified country. The country has seen some remarkable and unexpected outcomes across different elections and referendums over the years.

Two of the most notable upsets in recent memory was the 2015 & 2019 election, when the Conservative Party ended up with an absolute majority in the House of Commons despite polls predicting a hung Parliament.

Another notable upset happened in 2017 when Prime Minister Theresa May called for a snap election that backfired on her entirely.

After confidently declaring she would gain more seats for her party, Labour instead gained 30 seats and pushed her into a minority government.

Other major political upsets include Brexit in 2016 when the UK narrowly voted to leave the European Union by 52% against 48%.

This result shocked many people around the world who were expecting remain to prevail due to pre-referendum polls indicating the opposite outcome.

Overall, it is clear that anything can happen in UK politics, and these recent events have shown that even an apparent certainty isn’t always what it seems!

Other Political Bets Worth Considering

The General Election and next Prime Minister betting are not the only options for political betting in the UK. Other types of bets you can place include:

Next Party Leader

This is less dependent on an election result and more on the internal workings of the party, making it a great way to gain insight into how the parties are being run.

Party leadership contests often throw up some interesting results, and it’s not always the front-runner who ends up winning.

In recent years, Jeremy Corbyn was an unexpected victor in the 2015 Labour leadership contest.

Election Date Betting

Bookmakers will often offer bets on the exact date an election will occur. Typically, British elections take place at least once every five years and usually happen in the month of May or June.

However, the last election in 2019 took place in December, so the date of the next election is still up in the air.

Which MP or Politician Will Resign First?

This type of bet is less about the political outcome and more about keeping an eye on current events.

Bookmakers will offer odds for which prominent MP or politician will resign first, either due to ill health, a scandal, or just because they decide to retire from politics.

This type of bet can be challenging to predict.

In conclusion, there are many different types of political bets available for those looking to get involved in UK politics.

Whether you’re interested in the odds on the next Prime Minister, predicting the outcome of the next election or keeping an eye on current events, there are plenty of options for you to consider.

So, why not explore the world of political betting and see if you can make a profit from your predictions? Good luck!

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