What’s the word on who will win the Grand National this year, have you received a hot tip from a guy who knows a guy down the pub? Or have you studied the form and come up with a sure winner? Maybe like the majority of us you’ve struggled to narrow down the 40 horses taking part, well what if some clever boffin came up with a formula to pick the winner? Well, Mr Hartson, a Cambridge University academic has done just that and published his choice for this year’s Grand National based on his formula.
To be honest this may be a scientific approach but it doesn’t deal with data on statistical history of each horse, course form or anything that would give you an insight into the runner’s ability to win. In fact, Mr Hartson the academic in question has based his analysis on the names of previous Grand National winners rather than their form. Looking at the last 174 years of the race Hartson has devised a scoring system that looks at the frequency of letters appearing in the names of the winners for each year.
But when it comes to the Grand National we will all have heard of a story of someone backing the winner because they had the same name of a much-loved grandparent or the name of their first pet, or even because the jockey’s silks where the same colour as a favourite football team, So maybe each method for picking a horse is as good as the next! Well, I’m sure your eager to see which horse was predicted using Mr Hartson’s method. According to his formula the letters S, R, M and C appear most frequently in winners names and that it is also more likely that a horse will win if its name is a single word which means that this year’s Grand National winner will be SEABASS.
On the face of it, this prediction actually isn’t as unlikely a choice as the system could produce. Seabass is tipped by many to win the race with people such as the BBC Racing Journalist Cornelius Lysaght and horse trainer Jenny Pitman going on record to favour Seabass as the strongest contender this year. If you are still unsure on which horse to back then why not take a look at these great tips for picking a winner or maybe just drop a pin in this full list of runners.