The favourites for Super Bowl LXI are easy enough to find as the Los Angeles Rams head into the 2026 NFL season at the top of the betting after a huge offseason. They are, however, not a sure thing, with the Buffalo Bills, Seattle Seahawks and Baltimore Ravens also among the teams expected to be in the mix for the Lombardi Trophy.
As we all know the NFL rarely follows a script and a serious Super Bowl contender does not always need to enter September as one of the three or four shortest-priced teams. Occasionally, a team simply benefits from winning the right division and getting a much kinder playoff route.
So rather than asking which five teams are simply next on the betting list, we have picked five 2026 NFL dark horses who each have a different reason for believing they could still be playing on February 14, 2027, when Super Bowl LXI takes place at SoFi Stadium in California.
1. LA Chargers: The Quarterback Who Has Been Waiting for the Right Offense
The argument for the Los Angeles Chargers starts with one question. What happens if Justin Herbert finally gets an offense capable of making his life easier?
Herbert’s talent has never really been the problem. The Chargers went 11-6 last season and made the playoffs, but their season ended with a miserable 16-3 defeat against New England.
Jim Harbaugh has responded by making one of the most interesting coaching changes of the offseason. Greg Roman is gone as offensive coordinator, and former Miami Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel has arrived. That could be huge for Herbert.
The Chargers become more interesting if McDaniel can unlock more from an offense that already has a proven quarterback in Herbert. Fans can use FanDuel Sportsbook NFL to see how Los Angeles is being priced alongside other AFC contenders as expectations around that new offensive setup develop.
With a defense that already performed at a high level last season, even a modest offensive step forward could strengthen the Chargers’ case.
2. Houston Texans: The Team That Might Only Need an Average Offense
Houston may not need everything to click to reach the Super Bowl. It may simply need C.J. Stroud to rediscover his best form.
The Texans went 12-5 last season and have now reached the Divisional Round three years in a row, but Stroud struggled at times and threw four interceptions in the playoff loss to New England.
The good news is that Houston already has a defense capable of carrying a contender. Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter lead a strong pass rush, while Derek Stingley Jr. heads one of the NFL’s best secondaries. The offensive line has also been strengthened, with David Montgomery adding another option in the running game.
Houston has won 22 regular-season games over the past two years. If Stroud gets close to his 2023 form, the Texans could finally turn playoff appearances into a serious Super Bowl run.
3. Chicago Bears: The Year-Two Leap
Chicago made a huge jump last season, finishing 11-6, winning the NFC North and reaching the Divisional Round.
Much of the excitement around the Bears comes from Caleb Williams. He showed plenty of promise in 2025 and now gets a second season working with head coach Ben Johnson. Chicago still has plenty of young attacking talent, including Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland, giving Williams enough weapons to take another step forward.
There are questions on defense after several offseason changes, but the Bears may not need to be perfect on that side of the ball. If Williams develops into one of the NFC’s better quarterbacks, Chicago could quickly move from an interesting outsider into a genuine Super Bowl contender.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars: The 13-Win Team Everyone Seems to Have Forgotten
Jacksonville may be the most interesting dark horse of the five. The Jaguars went 13-4 last season, won the AFC South and finished the regular season with eight straight victories.
Their playoff run ended with a narrow 27-24 loss to Buffalo, but that should not erase what was a very strong first season under Liam Coen.
Trevor Lawrence looked increasingly comfortable as the season went on, while Jacksonville finished among the better teams in the league on both offense and defense. Travis Hunter could also become an even bigger factor in his second NFL season.
For a team coming off 13 wins, odds of around 28/1 look generous. If Jacksonville carries last season’s progress into 2026, another division title and a longer playoff run are very realistic.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Long Shot With the Shortest Route
Tampa Bay is the biggest outsider on this list, but the NFC South gives the Buccaneers a chance. They finished only 8-9 last season, but Carolina won the division with the same record. Tampa Bay therefore does not need to become one of the NFL’s best teams to put itself in a strong playoff position.
Winning the division would mean a home game in the Wild Card round, and from there, anything can happen. The Buccaneers have tried to improve their defense, including adding first-round pass rusher Rueben Bain Jr., while Baker Mayfield remains capable of producing strong performances when the offense is working.
At around 66/1, Tampa Bay comes with obvious risks. But an open division and a realistic route to the playoffs make the Buccaneers a more interesting long-shot Super Bowl bet than their record might suggest.
Which 2026 NFL Dark Horse Has the Best Chance?
The LA Rams may be the favourites but that doesn’t mean everything will go their way, and the five teams above demonstrate the strength of the NFL ahead of the new season.
If we were simply picking the strongest team of the five, the Chargers or Texans would probably get the vote. Los Angeles has a top quarterback, a strong defense and perhaps the most interesting offensive coaching appointment of the year. Houston already has a defense capable of winning playoff games almost by itself.
But Jacksonville may offer the most interesting mix of price and recent evidence, and are being priced far more generously than several teams despite coming off a 13-4 season. They know they can win their division, they know Liam Coen’s system works and they were only three points from advancing in last season’s playoffs.
Chicago is the high-upside choice. If Caleb Williams makes another major step in his second year with Ben Johnson, the Bears could quickly move from dark horse to one of the NFC’s main contenders.
Tampa Bay is different. They are not being picked because they have the strongest roster. They make the list because there is a believable chain of events that ends with them making a deep playoff run.
And that is really the point of looking for NFL dark horses. You are not trying to find a perfect football team. You are looking for a team with enough quality to reach January, one or two strengths that travel well in the playoffs, and a reason to believe it could be much better than the market currently expects.
For the Chargers, it is a new offence. For Houston, it is the possibility of Stroud bouncing back. For Chicago, it is the continued growth of Caleb Williams.
For Jacksonville, it is a 13-win team being treated like last season did not happen. And for Tampa Bay, it might simply be getting through the right door before anybody else notices it is open.
